October 2026 HIGHLIGHTS
Rising inflation risk has pushed yields higher and could drive the five-year fixed mortgage rate to above 5 per cent. The economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter, but growth is expected to slow as tariffs weigh on exports and add modest inflation pressure. Our baseline for the Bank of Canada overnight rate remains unchanged through 2026, but the risk of earlier rate hikes has increased if energy prices and inflation expectations continue to rise.
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